BoE raises UK interest rates by quarter-point to 4.25%
The Bank of England has raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25% in response to higher-than-expected UK inflation and signs that Britain’s economy is holding up better than feared.
In a fortnight of heightened unease across global financial markets, the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) voted by a majority of seven to two to increase the base rate for the 11th time in a row.
It came after an unexpected jump in the UK inflation rate in February to 10.4%, from 10.1% in January, fuelled by food prices increasing at the fastest pace in 45 years. The Bank’s official target for inflation is 2%.
The pound rose against the dollar as financial markets moved to anticipate one more quarter-point increase at the MPC’s next meeting in May. However, economists said a 12th and final rate increase to 4.5% hung in the balance amid signs that inflation would fall sharply over the coming months.
Rates have now risen by 4.15 percentage points since December 2021, the most aggressive tightening of UK monetary policy for decades. Threadneedle Street left open the option of a further rate increase but said it would only take action if there were signs of “persistent pressures” from inflation.
Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, said there were signs that the price spiral was “peaking”, telling broadcasters: “But of course, it’s far too high. We think it’s going to come down sharply, really from the early summer onwards. But we haven’t seen that happen yet.”
In an upbeat assessment, the Bank said it was no longer forecasting a technical recession, whereby the economy shrinks for two consecutive quarters. UK gross domestic product (GDP) was now probably on track to grow slightly in the second quarter of the year, after a previous forecast of a 0.4% drop in activity.
“Back at the beginning of February, we were really on a bit of a knife-edge as to whether there would be a recession. Certainly, we thought the economy would be quite stagnant,” Bailey said. “It’s not off to the races, let’s be clear. But I’m a bit more optimistic.”
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