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Is the UK housing market going to fall at last?

A recession in the UK looks almost inevitable – but some estate agents have reported a buying frenzy and a flood of properties on to the housing market, as people try to move home before interest rates go up further to tame high inflation.

“Some buyers have taken the decision to get in now before the next round of interest-rate rises, and that’s added a degree of urgency to the market in latter months,” says Lucian Cook, head of residential research at the estate agent Savills.

Knight Frank and Hunters are among the estate agents reporting more properties coming on to the market. Gareth Williams, managing director at Hunters, says: “The last two weeks have seen a significant uplift and the last week was Hunters’ best listing week of the year.”

“We are at a crossroads,” says Andrew Groocock, a regional partner at Knight Frank. “Nothing has dropped off yet. August was our busiest August for new listings for 10 years in London, and our busiest month since September 2020.”

But the economic circumstances look threatening. Even with the £2,500 price cap freeze promised by Liz Truss this autumn, energy bills will be double what they were last year, inflation remains just below 10%, real wages are falling, and interest rates are expected to hit 3% by the end of the year. The Bank of England is expected to raise borrowing costs again this week to combat inflation, despite the darkening economic outlook, by at least 50 basis points from 1.75%.

“For buyers, there’s a sense of ‘I’m going to do it now because I’ll get a better mortgage rate, and I’ll probably be able to borrow a little bit more than I will in three, four or five months’ time,’” says Groocock.

Despite the buying frenzy in some areas of the housing market, there are ample signs that it is coming off the boil. The official house price index showed annual growth of 15.5% in July, a 19-year high, but the comparison is artificially inflated. Sales were unusually low in July 2021 because the stamp duty holiday introduced to prop up the market during the pandemic came to an end on 30 June.

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